Curse

Lyphen · Mar 29, 2008, 04:38 PM // 16:38

Random chance is random.

chessyang · Mar 29, 2008, 05:04 PM // 17:04

Ya so i'm board this morning..... wanted to post my findings some day. i guess this is the thread to do it in and i always post on the last page =(

To the OP. yes it's a lie just like the Pie (portal joke). Chest running pays off in the LONG run never short

31 items
21 gold
10 purple
Retain 27 out of 31 @ a 63% chance

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/1...ckchartit1.jpg

will post any full size SS if need. and if you can't guess the spot try harder =)

Ken34 · Mar 29, 2008, 05:52 PM // 17:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grasping Darkness

I havent retained one for a long time either. I'm hearing the same from players in game as well.

lol, i dont even recall the last time i retained a lockpick, those things always break.

Lord Sojar · Mar 29, 2008, 06:03 PM // 18:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Morningstar

No, but the cake is.

Ahhh, I was going to post that... I hate you, lol.

Conspiracy Theorists FTW! <3

MithranArkanere · Mar 29, 2008, 06:17 PM // 18:17

Even with 99.99999999999999...9 (period) % of chances to keep the lockpick you may get it broken infinite consecutive times, since the result of each calculation does not determine the next one.

I Is Special · Mar 29, 2008, 06:23 PM // 18:23

Seems ok to me.
Ran 30 chests
broke 9 picks
I have a 63% chance to retain

Thats about right =]

Blackhearted · Mar 29, 2008, 06:29 PM // 18:29

Quote:

Is Lockpick Retention Rate a Lie?

Yep. A pretty blatant lie too.

LifeInfusion · Mar 29, 2008, 06:29 PM // 18:29

The gambler's fallacy strikes again

cebalrai · Mar 29, 2008, 06:36 PM // 18:36

My rate seems accurate. The OP is superstitious.

Lem · Mar 29, 2008, 06:49 PM // 18:49

Omgz the Variance Got Me! (see any gambling forum, anywhere if you aren't familiar with threads like this)

The Mountain · Mar 29, 2008, 06:49 PM // 18:49

Just got max treasure hunter a little while back. I kept stats for around 2k chests, and the retain rate is close to spot on.

Of course, I just broke 2 out of 5 picks yesterday in NM ascalon (96%)...lol? :shrug:

Lem · Mar 29, 2008, 06:56 PM // 18:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

On the Official GW Wiki maintained by Anet, the formula is clearly stated:
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Lockpick

I hate it when people quote that, anet have little to nothing to do with the content of that wiki. All they do is host it, a few of them converse a little, and one anet staff member occasionally puts the updates notes up before the website, and uploads lovely renders of the armour.

Other then that the content is completely player run and maintained.

ShoGunTheOne · Mar 29, 2008, 07:40 PM // 19:40

after continuesly breaking 16 lockpicks with 23% retain rate, the next lockpick got retained, twice

how dramatic

Skyy High · Mar 29, 2008, 09:09 PM // 21:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lem

I hate it when people quote that, anet have little to nothing to do with the content of that wiki. All they do is host it, a few of them converse a little, and one anet staff member occasionally puts the updates notes up before the website, and uploads lovely renders of the armour.

Other then that the content is completely player run and maintained.

Regardless, it's accurate information, in this case.

bel unbreakable · Mar 29, 2008, 09:23 PM // 21:23

started writing down my retain, lost rate before i gave up in disgust in a little over2 months from jan 3 i used 412 lock picks in that time i lost all bar 30

Nemo the Capitalist · Mar 29, 2008, 09:46 PM // 21:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by dts720666

As I go through GWEN, I have noticed an alarming number of lockpicks breaking. Supposedly, I should I have a 52% chance of keeping my lockpick, but it seemed I was only keeping about 10%. So I started keeping track today.

PLEASE help me track this by posting your own results. Post (1) your chance of success, (2) how many Locked Chests you opened while you were counting, (3) how many picks you actually retained, and (4) what this percentage is.

My results today:

Chance: 52%
Opened: 18 chests
Retained: 6 picks
Percentage: 6/18 = 33%

So even though I was keeping more than 10%, my alarms were not unfounded and I was nowhere near 52%. Now, it could be that I had an "unlucky streak" here, and so will continue to keep track, but please post your results below. Thanks!

BTW, just out of curiosity, and only if you want, you could even post gold drops from the chests. From these 18 chests, I got four golds, and 14 purples.

My "gold from chests" percentage is: 4/18=22%.

YES IT IS A Lie if you do lootpicks on the [U]short run/U]] with skewed information and unbalanced data you can say anything *

No it isnt a lie long term wise 100 picks and so on your data will be more accurate

*Balanced data is needed in order to ascertaina this mystery.

Scientific Method and Statistics class will help you on this one my friend

Drop of Fear · Mar 29, 2008, 10:04 PM // 22:04

ran 25000+ chests pretty much anywhere, NM and HM and retain rate is completly as expected.
i don't cry when i destroy 10 picks in a row, aswell as i dont shout my happiness when i retain 10 in a row, it just happens. 20 picks mean nothing, 100 mean something, a thousand will confirm the retain rate for sure.

Akuma · Mar 30, 2008, 12:37 AM // 00:37

I have a retention rate of 13%, and I've kept on top of my 50 lockpicks for a very, very long time.